sobirin research

SR Macro Aug 2026: The Same Conclusion. Different Evidence.

by

Indonesia Macro Regime | August 2026 Manufacturing PMI kembali memasuki zona ekspansi di 50.2, mengakhiri kontraksi pada Juni. Namun, pemulihan tersebut belum sepenuhnya mencerminkan perbaikan yang menyeluruh. Pesanan ekspor masih berada dalam kontraksi untuk bulan kelima berturut-turut, menunjukkan bahwa aktivitas manufaktur masih lebih banyak ditopang oleh permintaan domestik dibanding pemulihan permintaan global. Di sisi inflasi, … Read more

SR Macro Signal — July 2026 | The Transition Is Becoming Clearer. Research Is Becoming More Selective

by

Macro Regime: Q2 | Expected Regime: Q3 | Conviction: High | Data as of: 1 July 2026 Reading time : 5 mins Executive Summary The Signal What Changed? June’s macro releases pointed in a remarkably consistent direction. Growth momentum weakened further as manufacturing activity fell back into contraction, with the Manufacturing PMI declining to 46.9, … Read more

SR Macro Signal — June 2026 | the Balance of Risks Is Shifting. Are we going to Stagflation?

by

Macro Regime Q2 | Expected Regime Q3 | Conviction High | Data Input 30 June 2026 Reading Time: 5 min Executive Summary Our latest reading suggests that growth momentum has softened, while inflation pressures have eased from earlier highs. At the same time, financial conditions have tightened following Bank Indonesia’s cumulative 100 basis points of … Read more

The Game Has Changed

by

Mengapa menjadi benar saja tidak selalu cukup Banyak kesalahan dalam investasi tidak berasal dari analisis yang buruk. Sebagian justru lahir dari analisis yang benar — tetapi diterapkan pada waktu yang salah. Seorang investor dapat memahami arah ekonomi dengan tepat, menemukan bisnis yang baik, bahkan memiliki estimasi nilai yang masuk akal, namun tetap menghasilkan hasil investasi … Read more

PZZA — Thesis Update (Q1 2026)

by

Recovery Is Becoming Easier to See. The Market Is Still Waiting In April 2026, we published our Investment Thesis 2025 with one central question: Is the market still pricing PZZA based on its past business rather than its improving operating economics? Two months later, the core investment question has not materially changed. What has changed … Read more

Investment Thesis: Fewer Outlets, Higher Sales

by

One observation that prompted a deeper investigation into PZZA Restaurant businesses typically grow through scale. In most restaurant chains, the equation is straightforward: more outlets, more sales. A larger network expands customer reach, strengthens brand presence, and allows fixed operating costs to be spread across more locations. In theory, adding outlets should create a larger … Read more

How We Evaluate a Business

by

1. Starting Point Kami tidak memulai dari harga saham. Kami mulai dari satu pertanyaan: apakah ini bisnis yang layak dimiliki? Jika jawabannya tidak jelas, maka valuasi tidak banyak membantu. 2. Memahami Bisnisnya Sebelum melihat angka, kami ingin memahami: Kami cenderung menghindari bisnis yang: jika sebuah bisnis tidak bisa dijelaskan dengan sederhana, kemungkinan besar kami belum … Read more

Our Investment Framework

by

This is the foundation of how we think about investing — built on clarity, discipline, and independent judgment. 1. What is Our Investment Investasi adalah tentang merancang keputusan. Bukan sekadar mencari return, tapi bagaimana membuat keputusan yang rasional di tengah ketidakpastian. Pasar akan selalu bergerak. Narasi akan selalu berubah.Yang jarang adalah kemampuan untuk tetap jernih. … Read more